A season preview 25 games into the season?  What is this happy horseshit?  Shouldn't this have been published in March?  -- you, the reader

What, you thought I had the sway to pre-empt “a brief review of the Pontiac Montana?” – me

That's right, kids.  It's the most beautiful time of the year.  MINISKIRT- er BASEBALL SEASON.  The spring air is alive with warm sunshine, the smell of hot dogs, and the sound of A.J. Pierzynski kneeing a trainer in the junksac.  Barry Bonds has emerged from his cave in Punxsatawney and has seen his shadow (quote: “shadow got nothing to do with me at all”), guaranteeing us six more months of smoke being blown up our national ass.  The Pirates are in last place, John Kruk is on my television, and Ken Griffey Jr. is on the disabled list. Man, nothing has changed at all.

This week we present part one of the first annual My Stupid Baseball Preview featuring the American League.  Part two will follow next week with a rundown of the National League.

Baseball Journalism-Related Fearless Prediction #1:  ESPN's vested monetary interest in Barry Bonds will lead the network to abandon whatever vestige of journalistic integrity Michael Irvin hasn't already blazed up in his crack pipe and run ethically abhorrent puff pieces about Barry Bonds that treat him as just another superstar on the decline rather than a self-consumed lying cheating slime who has shit all over a century plus of the greatest game every invented with no apparent remorse.  I really hate Barry Bonds.  In my stewing imagination, he has come into my house, gathered up the things most precious to me, pissed upon them, and then explained to me that the reason I'm upset is because he's black.  I hate you, Barry, and if you don't stop pissing on my cat I'm going to get really angry.

But back to ESPN:  on Monday night's SportsCenter I watched Tim Kurkjian, who is not usually a moron, narrate a piece comparing Bonds's extremely rapid decline in performance to the final-year declines of Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Mike Schmidt, and Babe Ruth, among others.  You see, kids, he's not crumbling into a hill of uncooked Stove Top because he's not allowed to use cheaterjuice anymore; it's because it's NATURAL for great sluggers to fall off a cliff.

This is extraordinarily dishonest.  Because I don't feel like making a bunch of comparison tables, here are links to the career statistics of the six most prolific home run hitters of the pre-juice era and Barry Bonds:

If you think there is any similarity whatsoever between those decline patterns, you either can not read or your name is Tim Kurkjian.  Running a piece that implies that Barry's decline as a slugger is somehow similar to hitters of the past while using ONLY THE FINAL SEASON (and in Barry's case, 19 GAMES OF PRESUMABLY HIS FINAL SEASON) as a statistical basis is so extraordinarily dishonest that it made me throw a napkin at the television.  ESPN as a news source is an absolute joke.  I used to get pissed off when I would see ads for trash like Tilt and whatever the crap the Dale Earnhardt movie was called, but maybe they should just stick to that and stop pretending that they can still do objective reporting.  Fuckers.

Baseball Journalism-Related Fearless Prediction #2:  Bill Simmons will write another article that exposes his utter ignorance of all baseball taking place outside of New England.  My buddy Hub-Dog says Manny Ramirez is the new Ian Ziering!  I will now hit myself with something hilarious!  Every player on the Patriots is a U2 song!  Shut up, Bill.

On to the preview!  Most of this will take the form of “I think this guy sucks” or “I think this guy doesn't suck as much as other people thinks he sucks” so be prepared.  If you want objectivity, go to ESPN CNNSI.  I'm not even remotely objective.  I'm a Cubs and Devil Rays fan, I grew up going to Texas Rangers games, I like pitchers with big asses, I think the DH sucks, I want to have Greg Maddux's man-babies, and I miss Morganna the Kissing Bandit.

The American League East

The New York Yankess Did Not Vote To Support This Event

1.  Boston Red Sox

2005:  95-67, 2nd in AL East, Wild Card, lost to Chicago in the ALDS

2006 Prediction:  96-66, AL East Champion

The Red Sox are now a season removed from the heady championship days of 2004 and several minutes removed from the last fan from Southie calling into a radio show to bitch about the fact that the Swax haven't scored thirty runs in their last three games and theahfoah that bastahd Foulke should be traded for Scott Rolen or somethin'.  This guy and all of the other idiots will continue bitching throughout the season while this team wins about 96 games and takes the AL East.  He will stop bitching approximately the time he stops breathing.  Boston fans are kind of obnoxious, except Ben and Andrea.

Pitching:  These guys should be very good but I don't think Josh Beckett keeps up this hot start.  When you miss starts for three straight seasons with blister problems, that's a good indicator that you might be a pussy (another indicator:  you like Coldplay).  Curt Schilling is probably going to continue to be a dickface because that's just how he rolls.  Tim Wakefield will have basically the same season he's had the last ten season and will have the next ten seasons:  10 or 12 wins, 150 strikeouts, an ERA slightly better than the league average, and the occasional night when every other hitter dents the moon with his knuckler.  I don't know if this Papelbon kid is for real, but I believe his name translates to either Good Pope or Bone Paper, which is a positive sign.

 Hitting:  Write this down in pen and get it notarized:  If Cerrano Mo Pena gets 500 at-bats, he will set the strikeout record.  This dude was incessantly compared to Sammy Sosa when he was younger and that comparison is spot on:  he's exactly like Sammy Sosa, circa 1991.  I suspect that reports of Mike Lowell's demise are greatly exaggerated, but I could be wrong.  He's sort of mysterious.  Did you know that he's Puerto Rican?  You see the name Lowell and you think Irish, but he's PR.  So anything is possible:  he could have been on human grown hormone the last few seasons, he could be a robot, he could have killed the real Mike Lowell (an Irish guy) and assumed his identity years ago (Single White Third Baseman) and now karma is catching up to him, or he could just be a guy getting old.  David Ortiz will continue to hit the sperm out of the ball and if he humbles himself enough to lay down about 25 bunts down the third base line against the shift this year, he could hit .350, but he won't.  Manny Ramirez will hit .325 with 45 jacks and 140 steaks and will return to his home planet shortly before Earth is destroyed by the Vogons.

Fielding:  I include this here just so I can let you know I'm going to ignore fielding because this thing is going to be ludicrous in length as it is.  If you're a web gem kind of guy and this upsets you, please feel free to send me a nasty e-mail and I'll make fun of you later.

Hats... for bats.

2.  New York Yankees

2005:  95-67, AL East Champion, lost to Anaheim in the ALDS

2006 Prediction:  89-73, 2nd in AL East

Fuck the Yankees.  If you're a Yankees fan and you're reading this, then you're lying because I craftily set a Yankee fan trap by using six words in excess of two syllables in paragraph #1 of this update, ensuring that no Yankee fan would be able to successfully complete that paragraph and would give up reading before reaching this point.  Putting the Yankees here, second and out of the wild card, is about 10% actual belief that this is the year they miss the playoffs and 90% fervent desire to watch Steinbrenner strangle Brian Cashman with his bare hands around October 15.  But I still think this is legitimate because this team is extremely old and the pitching is really suspect.  Also, Robinson Cano?  Not that good.  That's right, I said it.

Pitching:  Randy Johnson is a freak and could still win 20 games this year and next.  I'm done with counting this guy out.  Logic and physics would say that between the violence with which this guy whips his body around with every pitch, the accumulation of innings he has, and the fact that there is no soft tissue remaining within his knees, Randy should have been done two or three years ago.  But he's not, and so he gets a pass from me.  Still, I think he can win 20 and this team still won't win more than 90 because Mike Mussina looks more corpselike every year and one of these days he's going to do that deep pre-windup waist bend and never get back up, living the rest of his life shaped like a clothespin.  Futhermore, Chien-Ming Wang is grossly overrated, Shawn Chacon is (hello people) named Shawn Chacon, a name closely associated with never being good in one's entire career, and the fifth starter is either Jaret Wright, who also suffers from Chacon's Palsy, or Carl Pavano, who is dead.  Oh, I almost forgot:  if you want to make a lot of money, bet on known head case Kyle Farnsworth failing horrifically in New York.  Trust me on this.

Hitting:  Don't think I give non-Bonds juicers a pass.  Gary Sheffield and Jason Giambi cheated too, but both of them appear to have adjusted to a steroid-free world and continue to be successful.  Not that this excuses them; I would like to see them outed and publicly ridiculed, but I hope they can both continue to play ball and demonstrate that they are pretty damned good playing on natural talent.  Actually, I'm only saying this because I have something like forty Gary Sheffield rookie cards in a box at home and I'd like them to be worth more than a quarter one of these days.  I really don't like either one of them, though if I had to pick one to hang out with, I'd have to go Giambi just because I think Gary Sheffield might kill a man one of these days.  He's a little nutty. 

Hideki Matsui is really, really good and doesn't seem to get enough credit for it.  I think that he was so hyped when he came into the league that everybody decided to give him the silent treatment if he didn't hit 60 in year one.  This guy is a fantastic ballplayer and has a gigantic, beautiful head and I love him even though he's a Yankee.  To further emphasize how meaningful that statement is, and to just give one last fuck-you to Yankees fans, I'm not even going to mention the left side of the infield in this paragraph.  Eat me.

Oh, and I suppose I'm supposed to make fun of and condemn Johnny Damon (don't ya mean Judas Damon LOL) but I'm not going to because I don't participate in the fetishizing of the 2004 Red Sox and corollary indignation at ex-2004 Red Sox signing elsewhere for vastly more money than Boston offered.  Ben, feel free to jump in here and let the world know how Johnny Damon is the biggest traitor since Aldrich Ames.

(Ben:  I'll leave this one alone... no further comment.)

Retirement Fund

3.  Toronto Blue Jays

2005:  80-82, Third in AL East

2006 Prediction:  84-78, Third in AL East

Toronto spent a boatload of money to upgrade this team and I'm down with all of their acquisitions.  I don't think any of them were a bad signing, including giving BJ Ryan eighty trillion dollars and Dave Stieb as his personal valet for the next three years.  I still don't think they're going to win more than 84 or finish higher than third.  Why?  Well, because they've been third in this division every year since 1951.  Look it up.  I don't think it matters who the Blue Jays run out there; they're going to finish third.  It's just inertia.

Pitching:  Roy Halladay is on my personal All-Stud team.  If I had about fifteen of him I would evenly space them on a leather belt and wear it to biker bars.  If he can manage not to take any more shin-breaking line drives off the ol' shins this year, I think he wins the Cy Young.  A.J. Burnett throws the ball very very hard and is occasionally dominant but he has a fatal flaw:  He was born without a chin.  I think his disability will hamper his development throughout his career and he'll die a .500 pitcher, lonely and smalljawed.  Gustavo Chacin is just hideously ugly.  Yes, that's an actual picture of him above.

Hitting:  I can't tell you how thrilled I am that these guys FINALLY got rid of Frank Menechino because for the life of me I could not tell him and Frank Catalonotto apart.  Same deal with the Devil Rays, who lost either Trever Miller or Travis Harper or Travis Miller or Trever Harper to the Astros.  I watched about 75 Devil Rays games last year (yeah yeah shut up) and I STILL don't know which is which.  I think that the Rays kept the shittier of the two, which is definitely their M.O., but I'm not sure if he's left-handed Trer or right-handed Trer without looking it up.  What does that have to do with the Blue Jays hitting?  Nothing. 

I think that people who are taking the Blue Jays as some sort of sleeper AL favorite are not closely examining the lineup, which includes Chronically Underachieving Vernon Wells (who should be a 30/30 guy but isn't), Chronically Underachieving Alex Rios, the slowest man in baseball (Bengie Molina), Shea Hillenbrand, who is a mortal lock for a big drop-off from last year's numbers (why?  because he's not good), and Eric Hinske, who ranks among the most useless players in all of baseball, right up there with Nick Green of the

4.  Tampa Bay Devil Rays

2005:  67-95, Fifth in AL East

2006 Prediction:  70-92, Fourth in AL East

That's right, fourth place.  WE PARTYING IN YBOR BABY.  Unlike the Yankees pick above, which I said was 90% wishful thinking, this one is only about 88% wishful thinking.  The Rays have extremely high suck potential.  The pitching staff is one of the worst I've ever seen.  Quick, name three guys in the Tampa bullpen.  I bet you can't.  If you can, kill yourself.  If you have any of them on a fantasy team, for the love of god drop him now.  However, the hitting should be there and I think they'll have enough 11-9 wins to get to 70 which will be just enough to keep the Orioles in the cellar.

Pitching:  As previously indicated, this is a vast wasteland.  Few things are more certain in this world than the Rays having one of the highest two ERAs in the league when this year is over.  Here's the rotation.  You have Scott Kazmir, who is like clams casino on the Shoney's buffet of the Rays' staff.  The kid should be a star if he isn't totally psychologically pulverized by having his leads blown by the pen this year.  Kaz is followed by Seth “Big Red Shit” McClung who is big, red in the hair and face, and shitty (like 6-plus ERA shitty).  Next you have Casey Fossum, who is the kind of guy you love to have as a lefty swingman but if he's your #3 starter you're pretty much boned and if in reality he's your second-best starter, congratulations, you are managing the Devil Rays.  In the four and five holes you have Lurch Hendrickson and Doug Waechter,  Lurch is 6-9 and terrible.  Waechter, by contrast, is 6-4 and terrible. 

The bullpen is a veritable salmagundi of AA and AAA-quality arms.  Dan Miceli (a pasta shaped like tiny pitchers who give up home runs) is the closer.  The best of the rest may be Shawn Camp, who couldn't even latch on with the Royals.  The shittiness of this team's pitching staff really can not be overstated.

Hitting:  This team should (and DESPERATELY needs to) rake.  If you aren't yet down with Jonny Gomes, stop whatever you are doing and immediately get down with Jonny Gomes.  He's greasy, he doesn't shave, he never plays less than full speed, and he crushes more balls than mechanical bulls.  Less inventive sportswriters will probably call him “throwback” when they start to pay overdue attention to him, so keep an eye out for that. 

In keeping with my theme of noting ugly players, let me give a two-handed Scott Hall over-the-head point to Jorge Cantu, who has a really unfortunately assembled face with skin that looks like early 1940s French countryside.  He's a beast, though, and when sportswriter nation starts to detach itself from Cano's sac, they'll realize the best young second baseman in baseball is my boy Cantu (why yes I can) over here.  On the other side of the infield, Julio Lugo is a pretty good shortstop and had one of the best averages with RISP last year in the entire league.  I bet you didn't know that.  The Rays should have traded him this off-season when his value was high and when, depending on whom you believe, Andy Marte could have been had for him, and most importantly should have moved him before he whangs his wife's head off a car hood again, which is inevitable. 

Carl Crawford is going to break out any time now and hit .320 with 25 jacks and 50 steals and when he does everybody will ignore it because he plays in Tampa.  Joey Gathright is an absolute burner—Carl Crawford, widely considered among the fastest guys in the league, swears that Joey is faster.  Gathright was discovered by a Rays scout who found him jumping over cars.  That's right, for fun Joey would long jump over vehicles (long way, hood to trunk).  The Rays signed him with a codicil in the contract specifically barring him from carjumping.  True story.  The rest of the lineup (if it ever gets healthy) should be very solid with the notable exception of Nick Green and I expect this team to score a boatload of runs which still won't be enough to win many games, but it should be exciting to idiots who think that good baseball is high scoring baseball (WRONG).  They tell me that chicks dig the longball, which just goes to show you how much chicks know about baseball.  FLAME ON MY LEGIONS OF FEMALE FANS!

not fast enough, apparently

5.  Baltimore Orioles

2005:  74-88, Fourth in AL East

2006 Prediction:  66-96, Fifth in AL East

There are two very simple reasons that the Orioles will finish in last place with about 68 wins.

Pitching:  In the off-season, the Orioles acquired right-handed reliever LaTroy Hawkins.

Hitting:  In the off-season, the Orioles acquired centerfielder Corey Patterson.

Those of you who have watched any Cub baseball during 2004 or 2005 understand well that these two acquisitions are more than enough to put any team in the cellar.  Those of you who haven't-- you know that story about Midas?  Pretend Midas's name is LaTroy and that everything he touches turns not to gold but to lost baseball games.  And pretend he has an equivalently cursed brother named Corey who turns curveballs in the dirt into strikes.  It should be a fairy tale season for the Orioles in ‘06.  BA DUM RIM SHOT.

get used to it, O's fans

The American League Central

Willie Wilson Is Not Walking Through That Door, Fans.  Bret Saberhagen Is Not Walking Through That Door, and Buddy Biancala Is Not Walking Through That Door.  And If You Expect Them To Walk Through That Door, They're Going To Be Gray And Old And In Willie's Case Cracked Out.

1.  Chicago White Sox

2005:  99-63, AL Central Champion, World Champions

2006 Prediction:  97-65, AL Central Champion

I want to pick against these guys; I really do.  I don't like the White Sox.  I find Ozzie to be irritating, though it bears mentioning that he's not irritating enough to justify this incredibly racist “humor” piece by SI hack Rick Reilly.  Since I know that's subscriber-only, here's a summary for those of you who can't read it:  Rick assures the reader that he's not making fun of Ozzie, then spends an entire article mocking his accent (excerpt:  "Mang, eet don't take no geenus to play bazebool. Eet don't take no Bay Roo. Jew jus fukkus.") like he's writing a script for a modern-day Latino minstrel show.  I'm shocked that SI allowed this piece to run and I hope they get raked over the coals for it. 

Back on the White Sox:  I thought the front office handled the Frank Thomas situation unprofessionally and Kenny Williams looked like a jackass calling Frank out in the media.  Kenny, you're a GM.  Let's put on our big boy pants now and act like men.  The only guy on the team I find to be particularly likeable is Thome and he just got there.  I want these guys not to do well, but I just don't think Cleveland has the pitching to hang.  For heaven's sake, the Sox picked up Javy Vazquez this off-season and made him their fifth starter.  FIF!  This team could win 100.

Pitching:  The rotation is some permutation of Mark Buerhle, Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland (who I expect to regress to slightly above league average), Jose Contreras (who is no more 34 than I am 16), and the aforementioned Vazquez, which should be the best in the AL.  The bullpen is solid, too.  I'm a big fan of pitchers with huge asses, so Bobby Jenks gets no shit from me.   Dustin Hermanson is going to blow, though.  He may not blow, but I've been predicting that he'll blow for the last couple of years, so why stop now?  I said he'll blow and that's that.

Hitting:  I love Jim Thome.  He looks like a goof, he wears his socks high and his helmet dirty, he hits ball very hard, and he types in all capital letters.  I read a scouting report somewhere that predicted great things for him this season because scouts were noting his improved physical condition during spring training—specifically, they said that you could now distinguish a separation between his ass and his thighs.  Who am I to argue with scouts?  Apparently Joe Crede can hit these days, which is a development that I missed.  Good for him.  For some reason (and I can not explain this), I have a bitch of a time remembering which is which among Ross Gload, Joe Crede, Aaron Rowand, and Joe Borchard.  It's great that one of them has decided to be a good hitter so that maybe I can remember him.  And if you read into that sentence that I don't think Aaron Rowand is good, you win an AmazingBen.com Junior Detective decoder ring.  But that's a story for the Phillies preview.  Rob Mackowiak absolutely killed the Cubs whenever I watched him play with the Pirates.  In my personal viewing universe he hits .600 and slugs .900.  I am glad to see him in the AL. 

Scott Podsednik gets a lot of shit from the stathead community who think that he's overrated because of his speed.  I am inclined to disagree.  I think being able to put fast runners on base is an immeasurably disruptive facet of the game.  It means infielders have to play slightly more out of position to prevent steals.  It means pitchers have a lot of extra things to think about (is he going to steal?  Will they hit and run?  Bunt?  If they bunt should I field it or let the third baseman get it?  Is he looking at my ass?) and I think a lot of pitchers are very subject to mental overload under stress (see:  LaTroy Hawkins).  It means infielders have to rush to ground balls and outfielders have to rush throws on base hits to keep runners from taking extra bases.  It means catchers have to work extra hard to control wild pitches to keep runners from moving up.  Basically, it introduces a lot of extra tiny increases in the opportunity for mistakes on the part of the defense and the pitcher and that a speedy team gets a few extra runs a year as a result.  You can quantify some of these things (like whether infield throwing errors on grounders increase for speedy runners vs. slow ones) but some of them you can't (like LaTroy having brain spasms and missing his spots) so I think this gets short shrift among the baseball nerds.  Anyway, I kinda like Podsednik.  But screw the White Sox.

it will be a real shame if we never get to see the bermuda shorts throwbacks

2.  Cleveland Indians

2005:  93-69, Second in AL Central

2006 Prediction:  92-70, Second in AL Central, AL Wild Card

In 2001, I played an entire season using the Cubs on Sega Dreamcast.  One of my best acquisitions was picking up C.C. Sabathia from the Indians for somebody shitty like, I don't know, Ron Coomer.  I don't remember.  He was lights out and I won something like 140 games, with the scores typically in the vicinity of 25-4 by the end of the year.  Ever since then, C.C. has been one of my very favorite players.  He has a big beautiful ass, he's an excellent pitcher who is due for a huge breakout, and his name is Carsten Charles, but his initials lend themselves to such wonderful nicknames as Corn Chip and Chocolate Cake Sabathia.  Also, when he got married, he had ice sculptures shaped like Cadillac Escalades.  Or so I'm told.

Pitching:  C.C. has already managed to hurt himself, which is just splendid, but the rest of the staff should pick him up pretty well until he can come back.  Cliff Lee will be one of the best five lefties in the league by 2008 if not next year.  I like that kid a lot.  Jason Johnson, Jake Westbrook, and Paul Byrd are also solid, and I think Danny Graves will be a solid addition as long as the Indians don't actually let him pitch in major league baseball games.  Out of the bullpen, the Tribe have Raffy Betancourt and Fernando Cabrera as solid setup guys for Rick Vaughan. 

I am also hoping to see former UF stud righthander Justin Hoyman make his eventual debut with this team because then I'll have done an audiogram on a famous person.  During a UF baseball game in 2003 against Miami, Justin was sitting in the dugout when a foul line drive conked him right in the bean.  The next day, he was in the clinic with one of his coaches where I was doing a rotation and I got to give him a hearing exam.  Long story short, his middle ear was full of blood, I made an ass of myself asking if he was coming back the next year (he wasn't yet draft eligible), and two years later I grossly violated HIPAA by typing this up on a website.

Hitting:  PRONK!  My man Pronk not only has one of the best nicknames in sport, he's also awesome.  He's hitting 35 and driving in 110 this year.  If only he could play a position on the field.  I like this lineup from top to bottom, really, with the exception of Jason Michaels who became a desirable commodity this off-season for reasons I will never understand.  He's going to suck.  Casey Blake can hit, Aaron Boone appears to be useful, and Martinez, Peralta, and Sizemore are excellent.  Eduardo Perez is a fantastic lefty-masher off the bench.  If he could get 500 at-bats against lefties, he'd have Ortiz numbers.  Todd Hollandsworth is ten pounds of crap in a five pound bag.  These guys should get the wild card, but it will be close with the second and third place teams in the West.

that man just looks like a ballplayer

3.  Detroit Tigers

2005:  71-91, Fourth in AL Central

2006 Prediction:  75-87, Third in AL Central

Everybody in America seems to be asking the same question:  where did Chris Shelton come from?  To these people I say “Salt Lake City, you dumbasses.  Use your damn Google.”

Pitching:  I don't think it's going to take more than about 75 wins for third place in this division, and I think the Tiger pitching staff can swing that.  I'd like to say that I knew Mike Maroth was going to figure it out this year and have an ERA under 0.50 and win his first three starts, but I'd be lying like Scott McClellan.  He'll (Maroth'll) come back to earth but if he can even be a good #4 guy behind Bonderman, Verlander, and Kenny Rogers, this staff will be great.  Justin Verlander is the bee's knees.  Man, there are some bitchin' arms in the AL Central this year now that I think about it.  Speaking of Kenny Rogers, I realize that the jokes about the chicken restaurants have been made already, but I'm not joking:  I loved that place.  My mother and I used to go all the time.  They had great chicken.  It's a shame they went under.  There is no joke here. 

Other than Kyle Farnsworth, I think the most obviously stupid free agent signing of this off-season was Todd Jones.  The blind spot that major league GMs have for the save statistic boggles the mind.  Don't get me wrong—I am absolutely a believer that there is some mental barrier that separates guys who can be successful closers from guys who can be successful middle relief guys but can't handle closing (see:  LaTroy Hawkins).  What I don't get is how a guy can get 30 saves and this somehow blinds GMs from his entire remaining career statistical profile.  I think saves are like breasts.  If you have them in great enough quantity, guys will go for you even if the entire rest of your…statistical profile is lousy.  What I'm saying is Todd Jones is NOT GOOD (also that I like tits).

Hitting:  I'm about 95% sure that Pudge Rodriguez was juicing.  He fits the profile—he had the abnormal weight loss a couple of years ago, he played with Canseco (in fact, didn't Jose mention him specifically in the book?), he seems to be extraordinarily competitive and of the personality type that would push for any edge, and he was one of my favorite players growing up, just like Canseco, Palmeiro, Sosa—you know, the rest of the juicers.  Like Sheff and Giambi, though, Pudge seems to be coasting gently back to Earth rather than falling off the map like Sosa or Raffy or Bret Boone.  I think he gets his average back up around .300 this year (which means his OBP will be somewhere around .315—take a walk, numbnuts) and leads the Tigers back to almost-respectability.  In all seriousness, I have no idea what Shelton's deal is.  In less seriousness, I think people would take Magglio Ordonez more seriously if his name weren't “Magglio” and he didn't have such feminine features. 

Oh, crap, I almost forgot that Omar Infante is on this team.  That guy blows phenomenally.  I went to a spring training game a couple of years ago in Lakeland to see the Tigers play the Expos.  At one point Omar air-mailed three straight throws over the first baseman's head (this is in the game, not in warm-ups).  On the fourth throw, which was catchable, he got a standing ovation.  I don't care if he hits .300 this year.  In my world, Omar is Mr. E-6.

presented without further comment

4.  Minnesota Twins

2005:  83-79, Third in AL Central

2006 Prediction:  74-88, Fourth in AL Central

Oh, those Twinkies.  I don't think their run is over, I just don't think they'll be very good this year.  The pitching staff is really young and while I don't dismiss the hype about Liriano and Baker and Crain, I just don't think they're ready, and if this team is going to compete, they need to be.  If they all mature in about two years, by which time Mauer will be either the best catcher in the AL or moved to first base because he was hitting too well to stay behind the dish, this team could be silly.  For the moment, you have a shaky pitching staff and some major question marks in the lineup, particularly on the left side of the infield.

Pitching:  Obviously Johan Santana is the second coming.  Beyond him in the rotation, I fear great disaster.  Kyle Lohse is not now, has never been, and never will be a good pitcher.  I think Radke is just about done, which I don't understand because he's not that old (33) but he's been shit so far this year and I think I read that he's planning to hang it up after this season, so maybe he knows something about his body that we don't.  I do like Carlos Silva.  That dude doesn't walk ANYBODY.  I think he had fewer than 10 walks in over 175 innings last year.  The bullpen should be very good, especially if Liriano comes along quickly, but I'm definitely concerned about the starters.  You know who this team needs?  Frank Viola.  That guy was awesome.  I remember listening to him throw a two-hitter on the radio when I was about eight years old and thinking how cool he was because his name was Viola.

Hitting:  I'm amazed at Ruben Sierra's longevity and resilience.  By all rights he should have been done five years ago, but he has figured out how to hit to the opposite field and made himself pretty useful.  Still, it's mildly depressing to watch him now, since he's so immobile.  I remember seeing him play when I was a kid in Oklahoma.  He was with the Oklahoma City 89ers, the Rangers' AAA affiliate, and he absolutely killed there, and he was just 20 years old.  He hit some of the most incredible moonshots I've ever seen, which I'm sure is influenced partly by the fact that I was a little kid and partly by the fact that it was a AAA stadium with no outfield bleachers so long home runs kind of just disappeared into the night sky after passing the light stanchions at the wall.  True story, though:  OKC's ballpark had an enormous Marlboro Man in left field sticking up out of the wall.  It had to be a good 40 feet in the air.  Ruben once jacked a drive out there that hit the Marlboro man on his mouth—right on that cigarette.  Ruben could blast.  Between him and Dean Palmer and Juan Gonzalez and Steve Balboni, there was some serious cranking taking place in Oklahoma City in the mid-80s.  I'm getting misty. 

Anyway, the Twins:  Luis Castillo was a great pickup.  I wish the Cubs had gone after him instead of Juan Pierre.  Castillo always seemed to be a huge pain in the ass whenever the Cubs played the Fish.  He makes contact with everything, he's fast as hell, and he's a slick mofo at second base too.  I think he'll be an all-star in the AL.  Morneau is going to be very good and Rondell White should provide some solid offense in the 150 or so at-bats he'll get before he hurts himself.  It's as regular as the tides.  Tony Batista is a solid cheap pickup coming back over from Japan and should solidify the lineuhahahahahaha I'm sorry, I tried to keep a straight face, but I can't.  Tony Batista sucks.  I'll be shocked if he hits better than .225 or strikes out fewer than 130 times.  He's like a shittier version of Russ Branyan.  Tune in next week when I kick Tony Batista's dog.

recquiescat in pace, KP

5.  Kansas City Royals

2005:  56-106, Fifth in AL Central

2006 Prediction:  55-107, Fourth in AL Central

What can you say about the Royals that hasn't already been said about Afghanistan?  Oh, here's something:  I think the Royals have some of the most attractive uniforms in baseball.  I really like them.  KC has undertaken the highly questionable strategy of packing their lineup with as many former Cubs as they can find on the free agent market—Paul Bako, Matt Stairs, Mark Quetzlcoatl—and I just don't see that working out for them.  It really makes you wonder what happened in 2003 with this team.  I think it's one of three things: Tony Pena is the greatest genius baseball has ever seen, the Royals got every single lucky break it is possible to get in the course of one season, or Dan Quisenberry's spectre was floating around scaring opposing teams' players in a sort of Angels In The Outfield situation.  They're all plausible.  I think the 2006 Royals win about 55 games, like last year, and losing 115 is not out of the question.  If somebody can find any indicator that this team is going to be better than last year, please point it out to me, because I see nothing.  This franchise is going nowhere.

Pitching:  Woof.  Does anyone else get sort of queasy watching Mike MacDougal pitch?  That kid's windup isn't just unorthodox, it's grotesque.  I would not be a bit surprised if something gave and he dislocated his entire arm mid-pitch at some point.  If he's still in the league three years from now, I'll be shocked.  I really don't know what else to say about the rest of these guys.  They range from thoroughly average (Mark Redman) to atrocity against mankind (everybody else).  They're not even that young.  They're just bad.

Hitting:  Okay, I'm going to say something nice about the Royals lineup:  Matt Stairs has been a pretty solid hitter over his entire career and you really couldn't do much better for a lefthanded pinch hitter and spot starter at first or in corner outfield.  Of course, for the Royals, he hits cleanup.  Here's something I want to know:  why does this team currently have eight infielders and four outfielders on the active roster?  Finally, I think former ROY Angel Berroa's best case career scenario is somewhere between Rey Ordonez and... I don't know, Luis Rivas?  Mario Mendoza?  Rafael Belliard?  Bucky Dent without any heroics?  Angel doesn't even ride the same bus as good.

happy Kansas City thoughts

The Western American League West

of Western America

1.  Oakland Athletics

2005:  88-74, Second in AL West

2006 Prediction:  92-70, AL West Champion

This is a pretty tough division to call.  I think Texas will be substantially better than last year and the Angels will be substantially worse.  I could see the Rangers, Halos, and As within a couple of games of one another the last two weeks of the season and just whaling the crap out of one another all the way to the flag.  I'm taking the As to win it, but I had the Rangers here yesterday.  Maybe it will be the Angels by the time I send it to Ben.  In the last 10 games of the season, the Angels and Rangers play three times and the Angels and Athletics play seven times, so if Anaheim is going to win it, they pretty well control things in that last couple of weeks.  It says here they won't. 

I think the Athletics have too much pitching and a lineup that is the best they've had in a few years.  If Big Hurt stays healthy, that's huge, because his rep as a player has unfairly been diminished by the fact that he's a dickface (though as I said, I think the Sox were the greater villain this off-season) so I think he's reached the point where he's become significantly underrated as a hitter.  This dude was probably the best hitter of the 1990s.  Now he's in a clubhouse with Milton Bradley.  You think anybody is going to give a shit if Frank is sulking a little bit after a day off?  No, I think everybody will be busy restraining Milton from clawing out the eyes of a heckler in Seattle.  Frank can sulk all he wants and nobody is even going to notice.  If he gets 400 healthy ABs, I see him hitting in the vicinity of .295 and knocking 25 out, which will be easily good enough for comeback player of the year.

Pitching:  Stizzacked.  Despite being Canadian, Rich Harden is the truth.  He was on the verge of breaking bad last year when he got hurt.  If he gets 30 starts, he'll win at least 15 and probably have an ERA just a weense over 3, and apparently 3 is the new 2 since the league average ERA is currently pushing 5.  Barry Zito was dating Alyssa Milano and he somehow fucked that up, so I have to assume that he suffers from some sort of mental deficiency.  I think he overcomes that and has another perceived-as-disappointing-for-him-because-his-reputation-is-greatly-overinflated-but-still-pretty-good season (something like 14-11, 4.10).  After that, the rotation will contain some combination of guys who should be moderately above average (Blanton, Haren, Loaiza) and guys who should be middling but useful (Halsey, Kennedy, Saarloos), which adds up to a pretty good rotation in this era of shitty pitching.  Whomever is left out of those six, along with Duchscherer and Witasick should set up nicely for Huston Street, who probably isn't as good as he's looked so far, but should still be very effective. 

I think Street is a good example of why this trend toward drafting college closers is a smart one.  It makes sense to me that the hardest young guys for the league to catch up to are guys who come out of college (or high school) and are effective closers immediately.  You can hide a hell of a lot of deficiencies pitching in short relief or as a closer, when scouts and video only capture you every couple of days pitching an inning or two at most.  You can use only your best stuff, you don't drop your arm from fatigue, and you don't have to worry about mixing it up for a second time through the lineup.  If a pitcher like Street gets off to a hot start and keeps his head in, he should be able to remain mysterious for another year or so before the league figures out how he can be hit.

Hitting:  Hey, this lineup doesn't suck.  They could go with something like Kotsay CF / Kendall C / Hurt DH / Chavez 3B / Crosby SS / Bradley RF / Swisher 1B / Payton LF / Ellis 2B which is solid if not spectacular one through nine.  Eric Chavez had a down year but I don't think it was indicative of anything; he's young and healthy and should be back up around a .880-.900 OPS this season.  There is a slim chance that Dan Johnson won't be horrible, too, which is exciting.  Kendall is one of my favorite position players in the league and my bias leads me to predict a rebound for him to around a .290 batting average and an on-base near .365.  In Bobby Kielty, Charles Thomas, and Hiram Bocachica, the Athletics have accumulated an impressive array of mediocre AAA outfielders to play the Mounds to Milton Bradley's Almond Joy in the event of Milton's inevitable suspension.
 

Last year, Oakland's most frequent five-hole hitter was Scott Hatteberg, with Kielty second-most.  The most frequently used six-hole hitter was... Scott Hatteberg, with Kielty second-most. The upgrade in those two spots alone-- whether it's Crosby, Bradley, Swisher, Payton, Johnson, whomever-- is enough to convince me this team wins 90-plus.

Also, I think it's hilarious that ESPN.com lists Frank Thomas among the Athletics outfielders.

you are such a dumbass, Zito

 Texas Rangers

2005:  79-83, Third in AL West

2006 Prediction:  90-72, Second in AL West

I'm not sure what to make of this franchise.  It seemed like things were looking up when they finally got out from under the Chan Ho Park contract, and then they signed Kevin Millwood to a mind-boggling five years and 60 mil.  This year they made a great trade in getting Brad Wilkerson, Termell Sledge, and a decent minors arm whose name is fun to say (ARMANDOGALARRAGA!) for shitty bitchy Alfonso Soriano, a second baseman who can't play second base but refuses to move and who can't hit a curveball but refuses to lay off of them.  Then they turned around and sent Sledge, a good first base bat in Adrian Gonzalez, and a very good young arm in Chris Young to the Padres for shitty Adam Eaton and shitty Akinori Otsuka.  I can not fathom this trade.  Look at Adam Eaton's career line.  Has he had an ERA below league average since 2000?  No.  Has he ever pitched 200 innings?  No.  Does he have any indicators for a future breakout (high strikeout rate, low WHIP)?  No.  The only thing he seems to have going for him is an ability to win slightly more games than he loses despite being in the bottom half of national league pitchers.  So now he's going to come to the AL and suddenly do well?  I don't fucking think so.  Young might be better than he is THIS YEAR.  This is a nonsensical trade.  You can put some of these moves on the fact that the GM isn't yet out of short pants, but this franchise has been doing stupid crap for many years now.  It seems like, with the bats this club has produced, this team should be in the middle of a run of excellence right now if they could just refrain from doing that one huge stupid thing every few years that hamstrings the rest of the franchise.  It kind of pisses me off.

Pitching:  There's the fucking rub.  First of all, too many lousy ex-Cubs on this team (John Koronka, Ron Mahay, Alfonseca).  That's strike one.  Strike two is that I pulled up the Rangers' roster and I don't have the faintest idea who among these pitchers is in the 3/4/5 slots in the rotation.  Did I mention that Eaton is going to miss the first three months of the season?  He is.  What a moronic trade.  Millwood is the ace, I'm sure, because he's getting ace money.  I guess Vicente Padilla and his famous flotilla.  After that, I have no idea.  Joaquin Benoit?  Kameron Loe?  Surely not John Koronka holy shit John Koronka is in the rotation and is 3-1.  Well, THAT won't last.  The inability of this franchise to develop a decent rotation for even one year in the past six or seven-- never mind maintain it, just GET it-- is pretty amazing.  The system birthed Blalock, Teixeira, Mench, this Kinsler kid, Laynce Nix will eventually get it together, and yet no arms of consequence.  I hear happy things about the three kids in the system-- Diamond, Danks, and Volquez-- but I'll believe it when I see it.  There isn't much of a track record here.  I'm not going to talk any shit about the bullpen because I don't want Frank Francisco to slap me with furniture.

Hmm.  I gave a strike one and a two so I guess I should find a strike three.  Here we go:  they have a guy named Fabio.

Hitting:    This should be one of the best run-producing teams in the AL.  Teixeira kills heat more than Horace Hogan, and this preview is now officially the nerdiest thing this site has ever run.  You had a nice run, Ragnar Smash!  Teix has '05 AL batting champion Michael Young hitting in front of him and Nevin, Blalock, Wilkerson, and Mench behind him.  That's a pretty stacked 2-7.  I'd be mildly concerned about D'Angelo Jimenez.  He hits wherever he goes but there has to be a reason he never sticks anywhere, and I've read rumblings that it's because his talent is equalled only by his utter lack of intelligence.  If that's really his problem, he must be just staggeringly dumb because the guy has always been a pretty decent hitting middle infielder and those aren't that easy to find.  I wonder if we could get him, Javon Walker, Vince Young, and Darius Miles in a dumb-off for all the marbles.

Rod Barajas had 20 donks last year but I think that was his career peak and he'll be back around 10 or 12 this year.  That's about the only place where I see this lineup getting worse.  Mench picking up all of Richard Hidalgo's horrible at-bats from last year is big.  If these guys had a centerfielder who could get on base, holy crap.  As it is they have Sarge Jr. and Adrian Brown.  Scoring runs should not be an issue for this team, and I think that the O will carry this team into July, when the Rangers will land an arm at the deadline for the stretch run-- somebody like Redman or Jon Lieber or maybe Ted Lilly if the Jays are far enough out of it-- and they'll contend but will miss the playoffs. 

this may have been ill-advised

Anaheim Angels

2005:  95-67, AL West Champion, Lost to Chicago in ALCS

2006 Prediction:  89-73, Third in AL West

There is a lot to like about this team-- Bartolo Colon's ass, Vlad Guerrero's ass, even Brendan Donnelly's ass-- but I think this team breaks down physically near the end of this year and falls out.  As noted earlier, these guys pretty much control their own destiny with their final ten games against Oakland and Texas.  I'm impressed with the franchise in general.  Mike Scoscia is an excellent manager and Arte Moreno appears to have made the decision a few years ago that his team was going to be an elite franchise and then he just went out and did it.  Also, I went to a game in Anaheim last year and they know how to present a baseball game.  It was free t-shirt night, there was a fireworks show, the audiovisual stuff in the stadium is top-notch, and I had this huge deluxe nacho bowl from one of the concession stands that was superb.  Mmm nachos.  It was a great night all around.

Pitching:  The rotation is very good if healthy with Colon, Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey, Jeff Weaver, and Ervin Magic Santana.  Escobar and Colon have both had health issues the last couple of seasons, though, and I believe Colon is already on the DL this year with shoulder problems.  Weaver may or may not have brain problems.  I think this is pretty much his year to solidify himself either as a solid #2-#3 starter or a talented flake.  I don't have any idea which way this will go, but I have flipped a nickel and it says heads, meaning that he's a head case.  So there you go; adjust your fantasy draft accordingly.  The bullpen is solid with Donnelly, Scot Shields, and J.C. Romero leading up to Francisco Rodriguez and his straight up filthy slider.  I'm convinced that that thing is a product of occult influences.  If the fundie Christians really want to root out evil in pop culture, they should leave Spongebob Squarepants the fuck alone and perform an exorcism on K-Rod's arm.  I'm not really clear on why people continue to give Esteban Yan money to pitch.  He's extremely shitty.  I don't think I've ever seen a player parlay something as meaningless as "Devil Rays Franchise Saves Leader" into continued employment the way Yan has.  Look at his career line.  He has never, ever been good.

Hitting:  The heart of the lineup should be something along the lines of Adam Kennedy / Darin Erstad / Vlad Guerrero / Garret Anderson / Tim Salmon / Edgardo Alfonzo which would be excellent if this were, say, 2000.  Most of these guys seem to be just breaking down-- Anderson's plantar fasciitis, Salmon's knees and shoulder, Alfonzo's back-- and I think injuries are going to hurt this team's lineup all year.  It will still be an above-average lineup, but they'll be out of whack enough to stay under 90 wins. 

I'm also convinced Erstad was never really that good to begin with.  I think 2000 was his Walt Dropo / Brady Anderson / Norm Cash year, that one inexplicable season that he'll never come anywhere near repeating.  There is a TON of hitting talent in the Angels' system-- Howie Kendrick, Brandon Wood, Kendry Morales, Erick Aybar-- and the way Arte spends in free agency, this team should be good for a very long time.  In fact, it wouldn't surprise me to see the AL West become the best division in baseball for the next five years.

for my money, the strangest-looking man in baseball

Seattle Mariners

2005:  69-93, Fourth in AL West

2006 Prediction:  66-96, Fourth in AL West

The Mariners' uniforms are ugly.  They should have just stuck with the trident-M logo instead of this compass nonsense.

Seattle Mariners

2005:  69-93, Fourth in AL West

2006 Prediction:  138-24, AL West Champion

See?  Much better.

Pitching:  Remember when Joel Pineiro was good?  Yeah, that was awesome.  This is an average rotation at best.  I hope that I get lots of e-mails now along the lines of WHAT R U TAKLING ABOUT FELIX IS GOD YAH RIGHT AVERGAE AT BEST LOL UR GAY.  Yeah, you heard me, average at best.  I don't think Felix can carry this team.  He's never pitched more than about 170 innings in a season and last year he was definitely wearing down near the end of the year.  He's no Doc Gooden, the man to whom he seems to be incessantly compared.  He should be better than Doc over the course of his career, particularly if he doesn't, say, smoke rocks, but no chance of him living up to that comparison this year, not in the AL, not in 2006.  I think Jamie Moyer's bargain with satan is just about expired.  Jarrod Washburn is pretty much a perfectly average AL pitcher, which means he should Meche nicely with the rest of the rotation.  Did you see what I did there?

Hitting:  Adrian Beltre is a total bitchcakes.  I'm pretty sure that's the only explanation for his performance pattern.  It appears that he's just a lazy shit and only played hard when he knew it meant getting that money.  Now he's due about 13 mil a year for the next four years and he's playing like it's beer league slo-pitch.  Sucks to be Nintendo or whomever owns the Mariners these days.  It took him 16 games to get an RBI this year.  That's ridiculous.  It may be difficult for Carl Everett to cope in Seattle, now that he has to reconcile the fact that he doesn't believe in dinosaurs with the reality that Jamie Moyer is a living breathing entity on his own team.  If his head doesn't explode, though, Carl should have another good year. 

I keep hearing that, if he wanted to, Ichiro could hit home runs all the time; he just doesn't play that way and chooses to shorten up and slap line drives toward the gaps, believing that the team will be more successful with him doing that than with him trying to drive the ball.  That's some remarkable humility and unselfishness, particularly from a guy who appears to revel in the rock star image that he has in Japan.  If he can do it, I'd like to see it sometime.  Remember when Rob Dibble was on Baseball Tonight every evening telling us how overrated Ichiro was when he came over in 2001?  Good call, Rob.  Yeah, he's terrible. 

Between Wladimir Balentien and Yuniesky Betancourt, the Mariners should lead the league this year in Russo-Cuban position players, so they've got that going for them.

Ichiro is numbah waaaaaaaaaaaan

Playoffs and Awards

AL MVP:  Manny Ramirez, Boston

AL Cy Young:  Roy Halladay, Toronto

AL Manager of the Year:  Buck Showalter, Texas

AL Rookie of the Year:  Justin Verlander, Detroit

Oakland vs. Chicago, ALDS

Grudge match!  After these teams battle to a 2-2 tie, they decide to settle it once and for all by light saber battle between ex-Sox A Frank Thomas and ex-A Sox Jermaine Dye.  After a hard-fought battle, Dye strikes Frank down with all of his hatred and his journey to the dark side is complete.  Chicago in Five.  MVP:  Jermaine Dye

Cleveland vs. Boston, ALDS

The alternate reality in which Red Sox fans live, the one in which they are an underdog and have overcome enormous odds and the influence of black magic to climb to the mountaintop, comes crashing down when they find themselves matched up with a team that has a sorrier management history, a much smaller payroll, and a roster built by savvy trading and a good farm system rather than having the second-largest payroll in the league.  Normal, well-adjusted fans would engage in deep reflection upon their self-piteous pathetic illusions, but we're talking about Red Sox fans here.  Boston in Four.  MVP:  Josh Beckett

Boston vs. Chicago, ALCS

Following a Chicago win in Game 1, Curt Schilling emerges from the bullpen for the first pitch of Game 2 sporting a seemingly familiar stain on his sock.  Chemical analysis will later reveal the stain to be Taco Bell Fire Sauce "accidentally" squirted on the sanitary before the game by the shamelessly self-promoting Schilling.  A similar stain on his game 6 sock is revealed as transmission fluid.  Curt loses both games and retires in disgrace after the season is over.  In December, President Bush announces that he has appointed Schilling to be the new Secretary of the Interior.  Chicago in Six.  MVP:  Jim Thome

AL Pennant:  Chicago

Next week:  the National League